A Renewed Momentum—but with Caveats
A strategic shift in EU enlargement policy has finally injected fresh momentum into the accession prospects of Western Balkan states. Yet, despite growing geopolitical urgency, progress remains uneven—and fraught with domestic and regional hurdles.
Albania On Track, But, Questions Remain
Albania has emerged as a frontrunner in the region’s EU bid. Since October 2024, Tirana has opened four clusters, advancing through 24 of the EU’s 33 negotiation chapters, with hopes to complete by end‑June 2025.
- Prime Minister Edi Rama vows to conclude negotiations by 2027 and attain membership by 2030.
- EU officials—including Kaja Kallas—have praised Albania’s alignment with EU foreign policy, especially sanctions against Russia, and pledged over €920 million in support, including €90 million for key infrastructure projects.
- Yet, analysts caution that reforms—particularly in the rule of law and implementation capacity—lag behind chapter openings, noting that current pace may not substantiate the 2027 timeline.
Montenegro Quietly Leading the Pack
Montenegro is trailing closely behind Albania, and perhaps even ahead in substantive reform delivery.
- The country is widely viewed as a front-runner alongside Albania, benefiting from steady technical progress and clear political will.
- During a visit by European Council President António Costa, Montenegro’s path was lauded, and its goal of EU accession by 2028 was reaffirmed.
North Macedonia Stalled Over Identity Disputes
Progress in North Macedonia remains stuck due to lingering bilateral tensions.
- A constitutional amendment to recognize Bulgaria’s minority remains controversial politically, with Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski calling for reciprocity—i.e. Bulgarian approval of North Macedonia’s EU bid—before proceeding.
- The European Parliament and MEPs have repeatedly urged Skopje to resolve these issues and continue with the reform agenda.
Serbia: Ambitious Rhetoric Meets Deep-Rooted Constraints
Serbia publicly reaffirms its EU aspirations, but faces significant structural and geopolitical hurdles.
- President Aleksandar Vučić, despite a controversial visit to Moscow, insisted Serbia remains committed to opening new accession chapters and reforming domestic governance.
- But accession is complicated by strained relations with Kosovo, alignment with Russia, democratic backsliding, and waning public support—only 38.9% support joining the EU, while 43.2% oppose (as of March 2025)
Regional and EU-Wide Dynamics
Enlargement in the Western Balkans is shaped by broader uncertainties and geopolitical recalibration.
- A recent BiEPAG policy brief warns that the EU’s credibility in the region is at risk—it both preaches reform and yet appears to enable democratic backsliding for the sake of stability.
- Former Commission President Jean‑Claude Juncker advocates a probationary integration model: aspirant states adopt parts of EU governance and attend meetings without voting, to prevent a backslide into regional conflict.
- Economic convergence data shows Serbia, Albania, and North Macedonia have narrowed the GDP‑per‑capita gap toward the EU average substantially since 2003—highlighting the positives of the integration trajectory.
A Patchwork of Promise and Pitfalls
- Albania and Montenegro are the undeniable leaders, with tangible progress and ambitious—but fragile—timelines (2027–2030).
- North Macedonia limps forward, hamstrung by identity politics.
- Serbia’s accession narrative is undermined by external allegiances and internal hesitation.
- The EU, meanwhile, must reconcile its rhetoric of enlargement support with real credibility—or risk alienating civil society and fuelling democratic decline.
Policy Recommendation: A dual-track approach balancing firm conditionality with tangible incentives—perhaps along Juncker’s “probationary” model—could rekindle region-wide momentum and preserve the EU’s standing as a normative actor.
